Pengaruh Pengeluaran Agregat dalam Mendorong Pertumbuhan Produk Domestik Bruto dan Implikasinya pada Kesejahteraan Sosial

Abstract

The research studied: which aggregate demand affected the national income – it should be affected by an investment normatively – and how the roles on economic development. The economic development was considered qualified when the development was not solely for the economic growth itself but also producing impact on social welfare; namely, higher employment and income per capita and lower poverty level. This research aimed to study: (1) the direction and the strength of the influence of consumption, investment and net export to growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and (2) the direction and the strength of the influence of GDP growth on employment, income per capita, and poverty level. From both these objectives could be produced measurement model of aggregate demands role in improving employment and income per capita and decreasing poverty level through increased GDP growth. This study used explanatory method that explained the causal relationships in the social welfare model in Indonesia through hypothesis testing. Data were compiled in the form of time-series on an annual basis in the period 1976-2007. The model was analyzed using linear regression through the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method. Research conclusions were: (1) The consumption, investment, and net export had positive effect on the GDP growth significantly, either simultaneously and partially. Degree of the influence was very strong showing very decisive role in encouraging the GDP growth. During the period 1976-2007, the GDP growth was in-elastic or regressive nature of the three aggregate demands. Consumption had the highest role and elasticity under constant elasticity of 0.637; (2) The GDP growth had positive effect on the employment and income per capita, on the contrary it had negative effect on the poverty level. Degree of the influence on employment and income per capita was very strong, meanwhile on poverty level the degree was weaker. This result showed that the role of GDP growth in decreasing poverty level was lower than its role on employment and income per capita improvement. The three attributes of social welfares were in-elastic or regressive nature of GDP growth. This occured as a result of low levels of employment and income distributed and not reached all the poor households as a consequence of unequal economic development