Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Inflasi Dan Implikasinya Terhadap Investasi, Kesempatan Kerja, Kemiskinan, dan Kesejahteraan Masyarakat di Indonesia

Suhardi Kamaluddin

Abstract


The problems under study were factors affecting the rate of inflation, i.e.: interest rate of
Bank Indonesia Certificates (SBI), exchange rate, money supply, value of imports, and
government budget deficit and the implications on investment, employment, poverty, and society
welfare. The effective inflation control is a necessary precondition to encourage increasing of
investment and employment and reducing of poverty in order to improve the society welfare.
This study used explanatory method with hypothesis generating study approach to explain
and test hypotheses about causal relationships in the model of society welfare to fulfill the
goodness of fit. Data compiled in the form of semi-annual time-series during the period 1997-
2012. The research model is formulated recursively and analyzed using linear regression through
ordinary least squares (OLS) method.
The findings of research were: (1) The SBI rate, exchange rate, money supply, value of
imports, and government budget deficits were important factors in controlling inflation. Inflation
was not reactive on the changes in exchange rate and budget deficit. The global inflationary
impact of rising export value also had a well-managed by government. The increasing of SBI rate
had not been effective in limiting the investment loan that inflation increased. The inflation was
most reactive on the change in the money supply due to the addition of the money supply was not
in accordance with the needs of economic activity; (2) The inflation control policy to attract
investment was appropriate, i.e. in case of demand pull inflation, but had not been fully effective
because the supply curve was not normal that minimize additional investment; (3) The inflation
control policies to expand employment opportunities was appropriate, ie in case of cost push
inflation, but had not been effective because the demand curve was not normal that minimize
additional employment opportunities; (4) The inflation control policies to promote poverty
reduction was appropriate and effective, ie in case of cost push inflation; and (5) The investment,
employment, and poverty created society welfare. Although the policies to improve the welfare
from the investment improvement and poverty reduction tend to be counter-productive, but from
the expansion of employment opportunities had been effective. Most investment still were capital
intensive, while poverty still was massive.
Keywords: society welfare, inflation, investment, employment, poverty


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.37721/je.v17i3.281

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