Peran Sektor Finansial dalam Menggerakkan Pertumbuhan, Ekspor dan Impor di Indonesia pada Dasawarsa 1981 - 2010

Abstract

The research problems are ; financial sector, Export and Import are fluctuated along three decade from 1981 to 2010. The aims of this research is analized the contribution of financial sector to led growth of, export and import. This research is explanatory research and used multivarians Linear Regression methode, Error Correction Mode., Set data of this research are ; Inflations Rate, Kurs of US Dollar, Stock Exchange Index (in Indonesia are called Indek Harga Saham Gabungan or IHSG), Loan Interest Rate, Investment, Consumption, Export, Import and unemployment. Inflation rate is significant to led import. The controlling to inflation rate are oriented for limitation of consumptions and import. While, Inflation rate is not significant to led investment and export. Kurs of US Dollar is signicant to led export and import. The controlling to optimal kurs Rp to US Dollar could led export growth and import growth. IHSG is significant to led growth of consumtions, investment, export and Import. Interest Rate of Credit is not significant to led to export and Import. Error Corection Model (ECM), is indicate ; the stock exchange sector and banking sector are waited to the publication of economics growth and fundamental changed of monetary policies and performance until the firts year, and will respon on the years second of them changes. It’s mean, financial sector not yet optimal to finance led growth. The real sector (consumptions and investment,) are led to unemployment on second years of them changes, while the export and impor are led to unemployment on third years of them changes. Key Words : Financial-Led Growth, Explanatory Research, Multivarians Linear Regression Analysis, Error Correction Model (ECM)